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¡¡ Saludos-hola, chabalotxs, desde el blog ( privatizado, en la actualidad ) Lukydemálaga-filosofia prolet universal/lukyrh.blogspot.com, se informa hoy también día 31 de jl-22,... [[ Digamos, ke éstee s el kuarto aviso,... ]] // L arevista ya se está publicitando en directo en distrito cruz humillader, en el publo de alhaurin de la torre, en las playas de huelin, san andres, misericordia ( playas del alborán magalita,... donde en cruz de humilladero, plaza, se han dado a la vez dos actuaciones musicales y explicaciones y lecturas y ciertas charlas, tertulias,....con vecinxs, inmigrantes,...y valoramos como positivo estas presentaciones,... ) //,...
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¡¡ [Nueva entrada] AT LEAST FED POWELL HAS STOPPED SAYING THE ECONOMY IS ‘STRENGTHENING’. (AL MENOS LA FED POWELL HA DEJADO DE DECIR QUE LA ECONOMÍA SE ESTÁ 'FORTALECIENDO'.)
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AL MENOS LA FED POWELL HA DEJADO DE DECIR QUE LA ECONOMÍA SE ESTÁ 'FORTALECIENDO'.
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30 de julio
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“Recent indicators of spending and production have softened.” This is the opening sentence to the
statement issued after the 27th of July F.O.M.C. meeting which replaces the previous perspective just
a month earlier on June 15th
, “Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging
down in the first quarter.” So within the space of a month, a U-turn by the Committee whose
decisions can make or break the world economy. Flying blind confused by their own fraudulent data.
Readers will know I have been ridiculing the FED FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) view that the
US economy was strengthening when the FED’s own analysis showed the opposite to be true at the time.
Well at least the FED has now owned up, or should we say the data is so overwhelming they could no
longer deny what was happening in production and distribution.
But this raises another question, if the FED recognizes the economy is softening why oh why go for a 0.75%
rate rise? Well the FED semi-answered this question, they have to bring demand in line with supply. That
means crashing the economy because the issues in the supply chain are so deep this is the only way to
control inflation. It seems that those empires which the gods wish to destroy, they first drive mad. Here
we have the USA provoking a war in the Ukraine at a time when the global market is still disturbed by the
pandemic and in a world haunted by the specter of climate change. (July is looking to be the hottest month
ever.) And all these messy disasters to be controlled by interest rates? Really! Making the bad, worse.
Not to be dissuaded the FOMC trots out the labour market. “Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in
recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.” And there I was thinking the US pledge of
allegiance reads: “In God We Trust but not the Bureau of Labour Statistics”. Here is a comment I made on
a recent posting on Michael Roberts blog: ‘There is another way of looking at employment data which
investors like Buffet find more revealing and that is to examine what is happening with “withheld taxes”.
These are the taxes paid by companies on behalf of their employees each month to the Internal Revenue
Service. All things being equal these taxes will grow as employment and wages rise, and conversely, they
will fall if employment fall. The US fiscal year begins in October each year and ends in September. So let us
look at the data from March which Michael correctly pointed out was the beginning of the softening of the
data as recorded by the Household data. So using the data found in the links following, the monthly running
total in March (month 6) was $273 billion and by June that had fallen to $262 billion (month 9) a fall of
4%. In addition the figure for June itself was $254 billion. Add in the 5.2% annual rise in wages and the
adjusted real fall is between 5 and 6% in withheld taxes. This suggests a significant fall in employment
beyond that expressed by the Household data. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2022-07/58219-
In addition total receipts received by the Federal Reserve in the 9 months to June were down 5% and that
is before factoring for inflation of around 6.5% adjusted for the same period. A real fall of over 10% in
receipts only happens in an economy which is deep in recession unless of course new ways of avoiding
taxes have recently been discovered. The danger for any decision maker is when they unquestioningly
believe the messenger delivering the data rather than analyzing the data itself. Its like a pilot taking off
without double-checking that the altimeter setting is correct, a sure way to fly into a mountain.
The new target rate for the FED was in the 2.25 to 2.5% range, which the FED says was in the “vicinity of
the neutral rate” needed to achieve a 2% inflation rate. Of courses the use of the word vicinity was the
starting gun for the markets to rise. Naturally, there is no such thing as a neutral rate, the holy grail of
2
central bankers. Interest rates are not independent rates. Rather they are the product of demand and
supply for loanable funds themselves set by the rate of profit acting on investment, in turn acting on
production. In the period since 2014, a rate of <0.25% was sufficient to keep inflation at 2% in a low
investment environment. No doubt the FED is about to discover that a rate of >2.5% is not going to be
neutral but catastrophic and by the time the FED reels back the rate, the damage will have been done.
In his press statement Powell said the growth in employment would underpin demand. So let us put him
to the test. Kraft Heinz and Amazon (Retail) and Procter & Gamble reported their second quarter results
this week. So how did they do in real terms factoring in 8.7% inflation? Kraft sales volumes fell 9.9%,
Amazon’s 11.2% and P&G by 5.7%. Seems that the consumer is not so resilient after all. There were
exceptions but as my attached spreadsheet ‘INCOME, REVENUE Q2 USA LARGE CORPS’ reveals, of the 21
sector leading corporations show, revenue in real terms fell 1.3% despite the inclusion of Big Tech, while
profits fell even more by 15.3% dragging down profit margins by 12%. (Generally there price rises tended
to be higher than 8.7% offsetting falls in revenue and profits due to the stronger dollar.)
The only above average growth was for luxury goods. In this regard Ford is educative because its revenue
went up, not because of volume, but because it sold so many top end vehicles.
In the accompanying spreadsheet I have also added in Big Oil in the form of ExxonMobil and Chevron.
Their sales & income relate purely to the USA. The spike in the oil price was sufficient to elevate their
revenues and profits to the point where total revenues and profits for all the companies aggregated rose
instead of falling. Of course this is a large chunk of the oil industry compared to the other corporations
which represent a much smaller chunk of non-financial corporations, so the effect is over-dramatic but
illustrative of the huge profits being made by the oil industry. Big Oil now plays a bigger role in the
economy despite global warming.
When a recession is not a recession.
In the past the saying went: “nothing is as it appears”. Today that translates into: “nothing is as reported”.
We were previously drowned by the media declarations of the “unprovoked Russia’s invasion” now we
are over-told that a recession is stagflation and if the FED is to be believed it has been unprovoked by
them. If the contractions in each quarter was less than 0.5% perhaps, but not a cumulative contraction
over two quarters of 2%. Further, if the economy was strengthening towards June i.e. towards the end of
the second quarter, then maybe. But the truth is the fall in GDP is accelerating. June was weaker than May
and high frequency data shows July to be weaker than June. Further, further, the big plus was the trade
deficits because exports rose faster than imports for two reasons. Oil and gas exports surged and import
growth faded, but the fading of import growth is not a sign of strength but of waning demand, accordingly
it reflects weakening. And of course, as I have always maintained, personal consumption is overstated.
In NIPA Table 1.17.6. there is found domestic sales without inventory adjustments. Remember GDP is the
value of production and not the value of final sales. It is obtained by deducting opening inventory from
the sum of total final sales plus closing inventory. Table 1.17.6 provides final sales unadjusted by inventory
and its shows a definite weakening in demand both for consumption and investment.
In the EU GDP grew unexpectedly in Q2. This is shown in the Graph below. And I thought the figures could
not get worser than the USA. Wow! With all the problems of energy supply, dislocations etc. the EU is
3
growing faster than 2015 to 2018 including the “Trump Bump”. Someone should tell the Euro that its
wilting is unwarranted and tell Eurostat that European tourists can’t be spending in two countries at once.
Graph 1.
The markets.
The stock markets were in buoyant mood this week. In fact July is turning into the best month for the
markets since November 2020. The Nasdaq which had fallen the most is up over 10% this month. At its
lowest point in June it had fallen by 35% from its November high. Now it is 23.5% down, still in bear
territory but recovering.
Graph 2.
What is driving this mood. Firstly, retail investors are being lured in by Wall Street’s siren call that the US
economy is not in recession. They accept the headline official data that employment is strong, and that
the consumer is resilient, all of which means the US simply cannot be in a recession. Secondly, this week,
while more corporations missed expectations than beat them, with very few exceptions these misses and
beats were marginal. However they were sufficient to reduce the surprises week over week as FactSet
points out: “In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 3.1% above estimates, which is below
4
last week’s percentage of 3.6% and below the 5-year average of 8.8%.” FactSet reported blended earnings
went up by 6% so far but, “The Energy sector is also the largest contributor to earnings growth for the S&P
500 for the second quarter. If this sector were excluded, the index would be reporting a decline in earnings
of 4.2% rather than growth in earnings of 6.0%.” This compares to my spreadsheet where profits are down
by 6.6% partly because FactSet base their data on a per share basis which is distorted because of share
buybacks in the interim. In contrast to Energy’s 290.3% increase in profits, Information Technology, the
previous driver eked out only 1.3%. It is worth mentioning that the other profit driver was Healthcare.
Finally, the other positive factor was the outlook. Many of the largest corporations provided outlooks
which soothed frayed nerves which is why the market this week rewarded them all: “Companies that have
reported positive earnings surprises for Q2 2022 have seen an average price increase of +2.9%” as well as
those who were less positive: “Companies that have reported negative earnings surprises for Q2 2022
have seen an average price increase of +1.2%.” It seems all is forgiven when it’s a ‘risk-off’ market.
Not everyone was enthusiastic about the market mood. JP Morgan analyst Mike Wilson warned his clients
about the fragility of the market. I would go further, the market is being set up for a fall, investors think
the worst of inflation is behind them and that future tightening by the FED will be lighter than earlier
anticipated, which makes them vulnerable to bad economic news over the next two weeks particularly
retail spending and possibly employment data. If inflation falls, if the FED relaxes its dot plot, this wont be
due to good news but undeniably bad news. Those CEO’s who blithely reported that the future is not so
bad may come to rue the day they expressed those views.
The Housing Market.
One such good news item based on bad developments is the ticking down of the mortgage rate. The
average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.22% on Thursday from 5.54% on Wednesday.
“This is an exceptionally fast drop!” wrote Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily. The rate fell even
further Friday to 5.13%”. Reported by CNBC. This fall is being driven primarily by the softening of the 10-
year yield. As the graph below shows, the 10-year yield has fallen by 0.8% in the last two weeks, the mirror
opposite of the FED’s rate rise of 0.75% this week. Talk about a vote of no confidence in the future.
Graph 3. (10-year interest rate)
percent
5
The sharp fall in the 30-year mortgage rate will delay the collapse in the housing market. Pending home
sales released this week fell by 20% year on year. Pending home sales are now well below the level found
before the pandemic. Buyer cancellation rates outside the pandemic era are at an all-time high. And as
CNBC reports once again, builders are now actively considering offering incentives to buyers to move
unsold homes. This coincides with the sharp fall in the median sales prices for new homes despite the
prevalence of sales in the higher end.
Graph 4.
Despite the improvement in mortgage rates because of a softening economy, the housing market remains
a black swan further weighing on the market. As the BEA reported in its analysis of GDP, residential
construction subtrated -0.71% from GDP in the second quarter or more than personal consumption
added.
Conclusion.
The FED has decided to comment less frequently on the economy. In short, its guidance is to become
more opaque due to having had its fingers burnt so often. After all it is quite embarrassing to have to
change one’s tune from a strengthening to a weakening economy within a month. The Chief Executive
Officers of the large corporations whose forward guidance was positive should follow the FED’s lead and
refrain from issuing guidance, but then they have ulterior motives in propping up their shares.
There is nothing in the data to suggest the downward trend is decelerating rather than accelerating. This
can be seen in the detail of the Conference Board’s report on Consumer Confidence in July. All
components weakened well below consensus expectations. In particular intentions to buy cars, homes
and appliances all weakened significantly driven by higher interest rates and prices as well as falling
expectations for the labour market.
6
The New York Fed published its high frequency data on the 28th of July covering the period up to the 23rd
of July. This confirmed the downward trend. If we factor in the 0.9% fall in GDP estimated by the BEA
versus the +1.62% estimate by the NY FED, then the actual figure is not 3.1% but 0.58%.
Graph 5.
A FreightWaves Report gives a mixed picture about freight movements towards the end of the quarter
and in July with some carriers suggesting a fall in volumes towards the end of the quarter and others
saying volumes are holding up. All agree the 2nd half will be “more constructive” than earlier predictions
based on the bullwhip effect because the overstocking of inventories in retailers has had less an effect on
freight movementsthan expected. Another reportshows that while ocean freight bookings are down 50%
from their peak and falling, congestion in the freight chain continues to prop up freight charges benefitting
shippers and hurting consumers.
Graph 6.
7
On balance the official contraction was less than I anticipated though higher than the consensus view. The
reporting season is now more than halfway over with all the big hitters having reported. Future reports,
which will include retailers, will be generally weaker. Given the enthusiasm with which some of these
profit reports were received, one could be forgiven for thinking profits YoY had risen when in fact they
had fallen. Already a picture is emerging of a sharp fall in non-financial corporate profits despite the boost
from energy, which in turn will depress the all-important rate of profit back to 2019 levels. This will reestablish the trend in profitability which led to the world economy stalling that year. Add in a rising
interest rate burden, price pressures and ongoing supply disruptions due to a deranged US imperialism,
and the outlook for capitalism remains grim.
Brian Green, 30th July 2022,... -- https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx...
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    31/5/2022 · Buenos días, hola y saludos de-por,... Luciano mm.-lukymá. ¡¡. ¡¡ ABAJO LAS APOLOGIAS A LAS GUERRAS INTER-IMPERICAPITALISTAS Y A LA DE-EN UKRAN, TAMBIÉN,... YA PARECE QUE ES UNA ESPIRAL DE VIOLENCIA Y BELICISMO MUNDIAL DE LAS FRACCIONES IMPERIALISTAS TECNOPLUTOCRÁTICAS MAFISLUMPENSKAS-GANSTERILES,...¡¡. *** Luciano …

  16. luciano medianero morales on Twitter: "Salud …

    https://twitter.com/lucianomediane1/status/1397528877753372673

    26/5/2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users

  17. TODO LO CONTRARIO

    https://grupoproletarioma.blogspot.com/2022/05

    31/5/2022 · En ¡¡ Un comandante asegura que Ucrania debe seguir reforzándose para una “guerra larga” (elobrero.es) ¡¡,... Buenos días, hola y saludos de-por,... Luciano mm.-lukymá. ¡¡. ¡¡ ABAJO LAS APOLOGIAS A LAS GUERRAS INTER-IMPERICAPITALISTAS Y A LA DE …

  18. Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad - Inicio

    https://es-es.facebook.com/iSostenibilidad

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  19. Test MEDIO AMBIENTE ¿Qué es el medio ambiente?

    www.creartest.com/hacertests-45779-MEDIO_AMBIENTE.php

    Hola-saldos de Luciano mm.-lukymá.-- ¡¡ Para saber y conocer y poder actuar, ya que es guia para la transformacion social, sostenibilidad y sustentabilidad de la humanidad y su medio donde opera, se crio, vivo, y cambio en su forma de existencia,...¡¡ *** "CUADERNO DE SOSTENIBILIDAD Y SOCIEDAD, SOSTENIBILIDAD DE LA HUMANIDAD, 2.-

  20. Como conectar la Guitarra Eléctrica al PC | Escuela de Riffs

    escueladeriffs.com/8-como-conectar-la-guitarra-electrica-al-pc

    1 – Conexión directa. Usarás tu tarjeta de sonido tal cual, con los drivers que incluye. Activaremos la entrada de línea en los controles de grabación y la desactivaremos en los controles de reproducción. Ahora vamos a conectar la guitarra eléctrica al PC por la entrada ‘line-in’ (a la de micro si es un portátil o no tiene line-in ...

  21. Autogestion universal - Home

    https://www.facebook.com/Autogestion-universal-108092011798562

    Autogestion universal. 1 talking about this. LITERATURA PARA PROLETARXS

  22. «Nos llaman cobardes, pero la única vía es el desarme»

    https://www.lamarea.com/2022/06/02/nos-llaman-cobardes-pero-la-unica-via-es-el-desarme

    Aprendió de los desertores franceses de la guerra de Argelia y él enseñó luego el camino a miles de objetores de conciencia. “Nos llaman cobardes, traidores, pero la guerra sigue funcionando como un negocio”, subraya. Con su larga experiencia en el frente contra todas las guerras, Beúnza considera que lo poco bueno que se puede extraer ...

  23. https://lukyrh.blogspot.com/.../campaña-contra-la... - ¡¡

    https://grupoproletarioma.blogspot.com/2022/05/...

    19/5/2022 · Tras conocerse que sería Jankowicz, quien según la administración era una experta en desinformación en línea, la que dirigiría la junta, varios usuarios descubrieron publicaciones que ella había hecho en Twitter en las que hacía propaganda al desacreditado “expediente Steele” que se utilizó para desprestigiar al expresidente Donald Trump.

  24. Se han quitado algunos resultados
  25. luciano medianero morales on Twitter: "@NordaceOfficial Luciano ...

    https://twitter.com/lucianomediane2/status/1479017653004087297

    @NordaceOfficial Luciano Medianero Morales Saludos,... de @lucianomediane2 -- lukymá.-Lmm. ¡¡ &gt;&gt;&gt; https://ideas-prolets-univers.blogspot.com/2022/01/trata ...

  26. luciano medianero morales on Twitter: "@TheRocketScien2 …

    https://twitter.com/lucianomediane2/status/1463533313763819521

    @TheRocketScien2 HOLA,DE lukymá. Editor de http://lukyrh.blogspot.com ¡&gt; Zus mando/comuniko, este video de unxs jóvenes cantando rap-por la dignidad y futuro ...

  27. luciano medianero morales on Twitter: "@Karonte_Distrib …

    https://twitter.com/lucianomediane2/status/1463533959707598856

    @Karonte_Distrib @ElSalto_Ext @ElSaltoDiario HOLA,DE lukymá. Editor de http://lukyrh.blogspot.com ¡&gt; Zus mando/comuniko, este video de unxs jóvenes cantando rap ...

  28. TODO LO CONTRARIO

    https://grupoproletarioma.blogspot.com

    17/7/2022 · Por Luciano mm.-lukymá. — ¡¡. [[ Pos vivan las guerras mundiales,…que ellas no contaminan nák de nák,…además eliminan capitales acumulados, fuerzas de trabajo,…sirve a la reproducción del impericapitalismo y a una mayor explotación …

  29. LUKYMÁ. FILOSOFÍA / GRUPO PROLETARIO DE MÁLAGA -2.000

    https://filosofiaprolets-xxi-xxii.blogspot.com

    LUKYMÁ. FILOSOFÍA / GRUPO PROLETARIO DE MÁLAGA -2.000 -. ¡¡ MATERIALES, PARA HACER OTRO LIBRO, DE MÁS DE CIEN PÁGS. TAMAÑO LIBRETA ESCOLAR ¡¡??¡¡.,...CON LITERATURA LUKYSTA Y DE OTRAS PERSONALIDADES, ENTIDADES,...PERO LAS EDITORIALES DE IZQUIERDAS NINGUNEAN BASTANTE, INCLUSIVE ICARIA Y ALGUNAS DE "AMIGOS MÍOS" DE …

  30. APROXIMACIÓN A LA FORMACIÓN SOCIAL MUNDIAL; " LA …

    https://grupoproletarioma.blogspot.com/2022/03/aproximacion-la-formacion-social.html

    6/3/2022 · El Socialismo y el Comunismo es más fácil construir en estos nuevos tiempos, que hace un siglo. A la vez la Revolución en Occidente ( que es muy importante para la Revolución Mundial ) y la revolución en las potencias imperialistas, parece que que se hará después de las revoluciones de las periferias; aunque es una cuestión dialéctica, ya que el proletariado de …

  31. Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad - Inicio

    https://es-es.facebook.com/iSostenibilidad

    Observatorio de la Sostenibilidad. 280 Me gusta. X un FUTURO + SOSTENIBLE think tank comprometido con el cambio climático, la economía circular, la sostenibilidad y el futuro. Diagnóstico y soluciones

  32. Postaporteñ@

    infoposta.com.ar/notas/12429/postalinas

    Luciano mm.-lukymá. [ ORGA. RESISTENCIA-REVOLUCIONARIA M-POPULAR UNIVERS-KAVERNIK- ] Lo pedís, lo tenés . Comentarios: Si a Jota Ele le publicaron a lo mejor publican esta: Jota Ele, muy cierto lo que decís, eso es la tendencia decreciente a la tasa de ganancia, y efectivamente lleva al capitalismo a su fase terminal.

  33. Duele - Blogger

    https://poetaenparo.blogspot.com/2017/04/duele.html

    7/4/2017 · Duele que se haga de día. y ver que durante la noche. has caminado por un estercolero. sin verlo ni notarlo. y estar rodeada de basura. que no …

  34. TEXTOS O POEMAS MUSICADOS Y CANCIONES ESCRITAS POR …

    https://www.cancioneros.com/aa/145/E/canciones-de-miguel-hernandez

    TEXTOS O POEMAS MUSICADOS Y CANCIONES ESCRITAS POR MIGUEL HERNÁNDEZ QUE EMPIEZAN CON LA LETRA E - Cancioneros.com, canción de autor, letras, discos y noticias de trovadores y cantautores.

  35. Se han quitado algunos resultados

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¡¡ LA PUERKA Y NEFASTA APOLOGÍA AL ESTADO GENOCIDA IMPERIALISTA CON LAS LEYES CON PACTOS ESTATALES/INSTITUCIONALES DE ESTADO,…QUE TANTO LES GUSTA AL EQUIPO DE GOBIERNO UNIPODSOE-MAFIS/LUMPENSKUZ,…¡¡.

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